Forecasting of SPI and SRI Using Multiplicative ARIMA under Climate Variability in a Mediterranean Region: Wadi Ouahrane Basin, Algeria

Water resources have always been a major concern, particularly in arid and semiarid parts of the world. Low precipitation its uneven distribution Algeria, along with fast population agriculture activity increase and, particularly, recent droughts, made water availability one country’s most pressing issues. The objectives studies reported this article are to investigate forecast meteorological hydrological drought Wadi Ouahrane basin (270 km2) using linear stochastic models known as Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) multiplicative Seasonal (SARIMA). In particular, data from 6 stations 1 hydrometric station for period 1972–2018 were used evaluate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Runoff (SRI) 12 months. Then, ARIMA model was applied forecasting based on SPI SRI. As result, (1,0,1)(0,0,1)12 (1,0,1)(1,0,1)12 SRI shown be best forecast. fact, both exhibited high quality 0.97 0.51 1-month 12-month lead time, respectively, validation R2. general, prediction skill decreases time. can reasonable accuracy droughts up months